The great thing about bear markets is that it punishes both good and bad projects. This time we were lucky, a gigantic tariffs war created immense selling pressure pushing some of these “good” projects into distress (extreme undervaluation).

Idea Snapshot

• Token: ARC
• General Thesis: Agents App Store and highest quality of AI Agents so far trading at extreme distress.
• Risk Level: High
• Potential Upside: 500%+

State of AI Agents and “Why ARC”

[Important Read]

The novelty and low starting prices of AI Agents in October sent the sector into a speculative frenzy. Even mere chatbots and non-AI funds branding themselves as AI were able to push 50x+, but this irrationality always comes to an end and this time was no different.

AI Agent tokens dropped 90-99% in value (most deserved it and won’t ever come back) but there are a handful that kept building and improving, so when risk appetite comes back (and it’s starting to) they go up a lot.

The bigger the flush, the fatter the next pump – provided the project actually ships something.

We took some backlash on our choices: LISTEN, BRAIN and ACOLYT. And while some are still down it’s become obvious from the 3-4x from the bottom that LISTEN and BRAIN had that we will be on the right side of history. I bought too early (I mean who would’ve thought Trump would go this crazy with 100%+ tariffs) but thinking you’ll always buy the bottom and never experience any loss is irrational.

I’ve been doing a lot of research and a lot of brainstorming during this bear move, especially around my thesis on AI Agents. I stripped away all biases, considered the possibility of them never coming back and of infrastructures like Virtuals, AI16Z and ARC to be failed experiments and rebuilt it from the ground up. Here is my conclusion:

Virtuals has failed its ecosystem, they were the front runners but they didn’t innovate enough. The quality of agents is what determines the quality of the platform and their tech is just too basic to build anything meaningful. The three good agents that came out from it are AIXBT, BRAIN and ACOLYT, each of which had to rebuild their own framework so it begs the question: “where is VIRTUAL’s value?”. AI16Z has been rebuilding from scratch and their Eliza framework seems decent but starting their marketing with auto.fun (which is just a fancier pump.fun) is just sad, I'm waiting to see more from them.

This brings me to ARC. Their selective process to date is making sure that only diverse and quality agents are being built. I mean I don’t agree with all of them, I think Soulgraph’s mission is hard to sell but it’s still unique and good tech. I found it to be a really good tool that saves developers time and allows them to build complex agents (unlike VIRTUAL). Yes, me and you can’t use it because it needs devs but thinking anyone can spin up a good agent without a tech background is stupid.

ARC Explained

Arc Rig Complex (ARC) is composed of multiple pieces.

When you build a toolkit for developers, you don’t think of how easy it is for users to build agents. You think of how flexible your toolkit is for developers. Take care of developers, enable wide array of applications and developers will take care of users. Imagine if Apple’s SDK focused on how easy it is for the average person to use it, we wouldn’t have half as good apps as we do today on iPhone. The same logic applies here.

ARC’s Price & Risk Management

Disclaimer: We’re a random Instagram page, this is NOT investment or financial advice. Always do your own research, we’re just highlighting a project we think is good.

ARC currently trades at a minuscule $35 million valuation and a big part of this downside has been caused by a mercenary market maker: Wintermute (verifiable movements onchain). The beauty of distressed assets is that the upside becomes so big, for it to just reach $100m is almost a 3x—that’s just unbelievable. Given the risks, I am only allocating 10% of my portfolio into it.

My plan is very simple:

1. I bought here at $0.035 because there is a deep value area at $0.025-0.055 and price is in the middle of it.
2. Sell half at $0.07 to get my initial investment back. I am more careful because we’re not fully out of the tariffs and macro risk.
3. Sell another quarter at $0.15 because it’s big resistance to book profits if we get there.
4. Keep the remaining quarter of my position to new highs if market conditions allow.
5. I will sell it all at a small -30% loss if price keeps drifting down and convincingly closes under $0.025. Overall this mean I am only risking 3% of my portfolio.

This means overall I get a 6x multiple if price goes to previous high, or only 2x if it gets to $0.15 and dies afterwards.

I am managing my expectations here because these mean reversion moves take time to materialize. Last time when hype happened, every return just happened so quickly, this will take time but it also won’t be my only new bet. More coming.

FAQ

Q: What is “mean reversion”?

A: Prices swing past fair value both ways. After a 90% crash sellers dry up price drifts back toward its multi-month average. ARC’s lifetime mean sits ~$0.125. The bet here is a bounce toward that middle while catalysts add fresh demand.

Q: Are AI‑Agent tokens still the big upside—or has the narrative died? Is VIRTUAL dead?

A: The narrative’s alive but filtered. 99 % of agent coins were hype and will stay flat; the infra and bots that kept shipping(ARC, ElizaOS, LISTEN, BRAIN) now own dev mind‑share. VIRTUAL isn’t dead, just stalled—no major commits, top agents rebuilt their own stacks. Capital will chase whoever actually delivers (can change anytime based on efforts).

Q: What happens if tariffs keep escalating and stocks dump?

A: If S&P tanks to new lows and BTC falls to $78,000, alts get another flush. My plan is simple, no matter what I am cutting under $0.025 if that happens. If my invalidation is triggered because entire market is flushing (and not because of ARC’s lack of developments) I’ll reconsider another entry afterwards.

Q: What are the catalysts ahead?

A: Ryzome closed‑beta 20 apps coming within days. If positive news leaks from the beta I’d expect price to start dragging up. I am on the beta waitlist, so if they let me in I will make my own assessment.

Q: What if Ryzome ships but is under‑whelming?

A: Price will reflect that and fall, decisive closes under $0.025 and my invalidation still triggers.

Q: How do I buy ARC?

A: If you decide to buy ARC after doing your own research, you can do it on Kraken or via a decentralized exchange on Solana. The correct Contract Address is: 61V8vBaqAGMpgDQi4JcAwo1dmBGHsyhzodcPqnEVpump

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Another post is coming soon as well. Someting most aren't even aware of, probable to be the next "hype cycle".

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