The Trump Effect

Let’s just acknowledge how bizarre it is that we’re even talking about a sitting (or incoming) president’s memecoin. But here we are. President Trump is about to start his second term, and his sudden foray into crypto has rattled the entire market. Not in a bad way for our portfolios, mind you—but definitely in a way that raises eyebrows.

The Surprise Memecoin

Trump threw a “crypto ball” for all the big names in the space—people thought it was a chance to schmooze and talk policy. Then, without telling anyone, he dropped his own memecoin: TRUMP, right after the ball.

It rocketed from $0.20 to $75 in about 33 hours, hit a $75 billion valuation, and minted an absurd amount of locked wealth (80% of the supply) for “Creators & CIC Digital” (read: the team). Now, we can argue all day about the ethics of a president launching a memecoin, but let’s be real: it grabbed headlines, and money follows attention.

The Bigger Picture

During his first term, Trump had a very positive effect on the US stock market (+70% increase on the S&P500). Now, on his second term, it looks like he’s made crypto his personal mission.

During his campaign, he talked about establishing an SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) that would see the U.S. hold 1,000,000 BTC—roughly 5% of Bitcoin’s entire supply. While the process is very bureaucratic and there will likely be delays, I do think he’ll make it happen. US dominance is a big point for him and you cannot reign while continuing to kick innovation away.

If the US does it, many other countries will do it too and as careful as they might be, you cannot buy that much BTC without leaving a massive footprint on the market.

Back to his memecoin, I find it hard to believe Trump would take such a colossal legal risk without a plan. He’s made his fortune playing chess. My guess? He might be planning to funnel the profits (via complex loops and treasury allocations) into Bitcoin. We’re talking a MicroStrategy-style move on steroids.

Crypto General Overview

I like to look at the Total MCap chart of crypto, as a way to see where we generally are. Here’s what I’m seeing now.

No need for complexity. The market rose, broke out and retested the 2021 highs before moving back up. This is a bullish setup with bullish catalysts, the market is right at a point of breakout.

We might stall, retest again and have to wait. But unless the $3 trillion support breaks, we’re in a bull market.

My conservative estimate is that we see this number rise all the way to $10 trillion, for Bitcoin that means a price of $200,000-$250,000. This is only my opinion and not investment advice.

Macro Then Micro

Right now, broad “just buy crypto” mania is taking shape, especially around big names in the news. Over time, investors will get more selective. That’s when AI Agents become interesting again (and yes we’ll post). But for now, the game is a macro one.

Three tokens that fall into my macro list are: ETH, SOL and TON. I’ll explain why.

Ethereum

ETH is second to Bitcoin in terms of having an ETF, it's the second easiest asset to buy in the market and get exposure to crypto. But besides that point, three other things stand out:

1. Trump is an advisor at a DeFi project called World Liberty Financial. This project's wallet has been purchasing ETH at a very fast pace, they now hold a total of 43,500+ ETH ($145m).
2. In current form, there is no interest in holding the ETH ETF as BTC is superior. Regulations always banned the ETF from including staking yield (3-5% per year), with lax regulations, this is likely to change. This can bring new interest to ETH and finally send it to $10,000.
3. The Ethereum Foundation, that created Ethereum, holds a lot of ETH (obviously). To cover up development costs they used to sell some ETH every period, now they're exploring staking options and the yield earned could cover all costs which reduces the selling pressure.

One positive piece of news (and Eric Trump tweeted yesterday: "Wait until you see what they do tomorrow!" when talking about World Liberty Financial), can send ETH back to its ATH of $5,000.

Solana

The TRUMP memecoin was launched on Solana, and that choice impacted its price positively (went from about $200 to $300 really fast). I expect SOL to continue to perform well alongside the rest of the market. I don’t have a price prediction yet but $400 should be doable.

This is an obvious one, and you don’t need me to tell you that but I’m saying anyway so the post remains complete.

TON

The least obvious play and the one no one’s talking about yet.

Likely the biggest victim of US regulations. This one will be a slower cook than BTC, ETH and SOL, but it has potential. As a first step I’d like to see it trade back at $8+.

TON faced a lot of scrutiny from regulators, their initial sale had to be shut down and investors reimbursed because the SEC called it an "unregistered security". Telegram's team had to put on an entire show to make it look like they weren't behind the new TON token and that it was the community that launched it. While the token did grow, we initially talked about publicly when it was at $2.5 (now a $5), it wasn't able to break through significantly due to two things:

1. Regulations that stopped them from being aggressive.
2. Telegram has the largest distribution network in all of crypto (900M users), they failed to turn that into token value "just yet".
3. Chart shows us it is at support and unless a massive market-wide selloff happens it would be difficult for it to break under $4.50. And, I like buying support.

FAQ

Q: What are you buying?

A: BTC, ETH, SOL and TON. For now. I expect them to perform really well over the next month, then I’ll become more selective again with a specific focus on AI Agents.

Q: Why not sit on your profits?

A: I won't sit this one out, despite having already done incredibly well with agents. I am now getting exposure to all four: BTC, ETH, SOL and TON followed by a more selective portfolio once the markets calm back down.

Q: Are BTC, SOL, ETH, and TON my only options?

A: They’re the ones I’m buying and I explained why, but I could be wrong. Do your own research.

Q: What about AI Agents and VIRTUAL?

A: Selling was the right decision (check our previous post). This sector was very overheated and is now barely able to hold up even though BTC is at all time highs. I’ll be a buyer again around $1 for VIRTUAL and will time that for other AI Agents too. Everything will be posted in advance.

Q: What’s up with the 80% locked supply on TRUMP?

A: That chunk belongs to the “team.” It’s locked for 36 months, which is three-quarters of the way through his presidential term. Make of that what you will.

Q: Should I buy or go all in?

A: That’s for you to decide, but please don’t go all in. There always are risks and going all in can leave you in a very bad position if things go wrong (always possible).

The crypto market’s on fire, fueled by a president’s memecoin and big institutional aspirations. Whether this is the start of a golden era or a bizarre sideshow, we’re in for one wild ride.

Stay safe out there and always think for yourself. I’m just sharing my personal views, not offering financial advice. If you’re comfortable with the volatility, this moment could be a big opportunity. If not, no shame in sitting on the sidelines. The market will still be here tomorrow.

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